What Affects Indie Game Sales in Eastern Europe?

I gathered data from 18 different indie games (with their permission, and I even got permission to show you the aggregated data afterwards), and compared their sales in Russia and Eastern Europe along several axes.

It included games from various genres, with varying levels of financial success, and generally no marketing efforts spent on the region.

The data isn’t extensive enough to look for statistical significance, but there are a few interesting trends.

Major Takeaways:

  • Localizing to Russian could double your revenue in Russia (it did in one case), but no effect in the rest of Eastern Europe
  • Early Access seems more popular in Russia (maybe due to lower prices?)
  • Mobile games crossing over into Steam seem to do better in Russia (and overall?)
  • There is no clear genre pattern to the region
  • Anecdotally, targeting Russia with marketing doubled their Russian revenues proportional to other regions
  • Early Access games are generally rated 5 points higher in Steam User Reviews than non-Early Access games. Hmm. I guess that fan-listening-thing really works.

Disclaimers:

  • All data is self-reported. It’s possible they are all liars… and/or that indies who would take the time to self-report to a survey on Eastern Europe are particular (more business-oriented? more inexperienced? more trusting? more data-driven?), or make a particular kind of game. With only 18 games, it’s easy for there to be a skew.
  • “% Rev” means overall, how much of your total revenue from the game so far was from Russia or Eastern Europe (EE)… not how many units sold. Raw dollars. Err, rubles.
  • The “success” measure in particular is very subjective, only measuring how the survey participant felt the game covered their development costs.
  • 16 of the 18 devs were based in North America, 2 in Western Europe. It’s possible this data mostly just shows what it’s like for American & Canadian developers, with no relevance to the rest of the world.
  • If a given category (for example, games with released console ports) has 3 or fewer entries, I have faded out that bar. It should be considered anecdotal.
  • All right, let’s actually look at the data.

    What’s The Landscape?

    overall

    Generally, you should expect ~3% of your sales to come from Russia, and less than 2% to come from Eastern Europe. However, there’s the potential for a lot more.

    “Success”: It’s worth noting that the scale of that final category isn’t quite the same as the others — “Success” (again, self-reported, and simply “how well did/will this game make back its money”) had a minimum of 1 and maximum of 5, while the others are a percentage, therefore a minimum 0 and theoretical maximum of 100. But in general, it looks like the respondents in this group made back their money (average of ~3.4).. that alone indicates we probably do have a skew. Anyway, moving ahead.

    What Year Did Your Game Release?

    year

    I wondered if Russia was growing or shrinking over time. Doesn’t seem to be a huge difference, except that maybe Russia has become more interested in Steam since 2014… but if so, the rest of Eastern Europe hasn’t followed.

    One game was excluded, because it was still in Early Access.

    It’s also interesting how high 2016 is, given that we’re only halfway through. That implies that the first half of 2016 has resulted in the same percentage of revenue (and same estimated success) as games that were already out for all of 2015. Proponents of the indiepocalypse theory will point how how high “pre-2014” success was, but I would counter that it’s possible this just reflects the long tail, or that whatever explosion we feared happened 2+ years ago.

    Did You Localize Your Game for the Region?

    loc

    Only 3 games localized past Russian, presumably because they were already successful and it made sense to invest in the game further.

    One game’s Russian translation arrived 2 years later than the others, while one of the “Russian+” games was entirely localized by unpaid volunteers.

    What Steam Tags Do Your Game Have?

    genre

    Keep in mind 1 game could have any or all of these tags. In the dataset, there were 10 Action, 6 Adventure, 7 RPG, and then a handful of others (Strategy, Casual, Tower Defense, Roguelike, Roguelite, Platformer, etc). I had some sort of hunch that more ‘hardcore’/challenging/complex game genres would do better in the region, but then again, it’s difficult for Steam tags to encapsulate how hardcore something is, and we only had 1 Casual entry to compare against. Perhaps in retrospect I should have asked participants to rate how ‘hardcore’ they felt their game was.

    Someone also noted that their game included a free competitive tactical demo, which had 14% Russian units downloaded and 3% EE units, even without translation. So that seems like an interesting outlier… either in genre, price, or some other element.

    Did You Specifically Target The Region With Marketing?

    targeted

    The “Yes” column only reflects ONE entry out of 18, and that particular entry was a low sales performer overall, so it’s very hard to read this as anything but an anecdote. Even so, it’s interesting that it would have double the revenue percentage of the other 17. In fact, it was the highest in that category across all games. There was only one other game with 6% Russian revenue, and 4 with 5%.

    Was Your Game in Early Access?

    earlyaccess

    Early Access does well there, maybe? Or maybe the later the game, the more likely they’re Early Access, and simultaneously the more Russians are on Steam.

    What’s not reflected here is that the Steam User Reviews were on average 5 points higher when a game was in Early Access (83.8 vs 77.9). There was only one other notable user review gap, coming up next…

    Has Your Game Been Released On Other Platforms?

    crossplatform

    We don’t know which platform the game released on first… I’m not sure if this shows that (in Russia) mobile games do well on Steam or that Steam games do well on mobile. Also, there were two games that had browser versions and one with a SteamOS version, which I decided not to crowd the graph with.

    However, it made me curious, so I decided to use this opportunity to do a cross-analysis of mobile vs others, and found that although their user reviews were on average a full 8 points lower (72.5 vs 80), their reported success was a full grade higher. There were only 4 mobile entries, so take that as you will, but it’s interesting. The mobile-cross-platform games also came out roughly a year earlier (2013 vs 2014).

    How Did Steam Users Rate Your Game?

    reviews

    So is it a case of popularity begetting popularity? Some might wonder if a globally popular game will be especially popular in Russia or not. It doesn’t seem clearly correlated here, though there were only 2 Overwhelmingly Popular entries.

    What Else?

    In retrospect the survey should probably have asked questions about pricing (not just base US price, but localized Eastern European pricing) and discounts (lowest price-point, etc). Other than the knowledge that the games were not free to play, I can’t comment on that factor.

    I also have deliberately chosen not to look to Steam Spy for sales data to compare the titles (yet anyway), as that would turn the data more towards units than revenue.

    Summary

    To me, this all says that if you were feeling shy about bringing your mobile game to Steam, consider doing it with some Russian localization. It seems like it could be a surprisingly good investment. Other than that, I’d be curious to see what happens if more indies tried spending a little more money on targeted marketing in Russia.

Seeking a Programmer-Designer!

Kitfox is an up-and-coming indie studio with 2 projects underway and we need to grow our team a little.

What is a programmer-designer? Maybe you make your own games and thrill to read good code and to encounter elegant designs. Maybe you work for a big company as a programmer or designer and wish you could have control over both halves of your brain at once. Maybe you’re a were-programmer that was bitten by a radioactive designer. We don’t know yet! But we’d love to get to know you.

This is a full-time position, with a 3-month probationary period. Our salaries aren’t competitive with the big companies (yet), but at Kitfox we believe in a healthy work-life balance, because well-rounded people make better games. If you don’t yet have the skill of figuring out how to have a good work-life balance, maybe that’s something we can teach you.

Please send your letter & CV to info@kitfoxgames.com ASAP if you:

  • Have some experience with programming, especially systems & AI
  • Have some experience with game & system design
  • Have good communication skills in English
  • Enjoy many kinds of games
  • Are legal to work in Montreal, Canada
  • Are eager to learn new things, take on challenges, and work closely with artists & designers
  • Ideally but not necessarily have some experience with Unity C#
  • +Bonus points for an unusual background, work experience, or lifestyle 🙂

Exploring the Planet, v2.0

We made some improvements to the exploration feedback recently and we thought we’d share them with you!

Exploration is the core of Shattered Planet. Yes, there’s combat, and yes there’s silly choices to make and crazy items to use, but to us, the important thing is that no matter what you’re on the hunt for, everything is fun to find. So we prioritised improving the way you explore, and a few small, relatively simple changes made a big difference.

First, you might have noticed that in previously posted screenshots and gifs, the “fog of war” had a harsh black edge. We took that out, and made the nearest tile half-transparent, so you can see what might be around the corner. If you’re really observant, you might also notice that the fog clears away from you, which feels much better than the old shrink-fade.

Then, we added instant feedback to the pathfinding, via a line pointing to your destination, following the path that the hero will follow. Sometimes this means you can tell when your hero is trying to go somewhere dumb, or makes bad decisions, but overall it gives you a better sense of where you’re going, and gives you a chance to change your mind.

BEFORE
shatteredplanetcombat

AFTER
explore3

What Will Your Obituary Say?

We don’t often like to think about death. But with the miracle of cloning, and video games, we can envision a bright new future in which death holds no sway over us!

We are in the midst of implementing our new “Obituary” feature, which pithily summarises what you accomplished during your run through Shattered Planet. Our goal is to keep them short and not overly sweet.

obituary

These are mostly taken from your choices during Choose-Your-Own-Adventure style events in your run, but may also change depending on your behaviour as a player.

Did you kill EVERYTHING you came across or sometimes avoid unnecessary fights? Did you clear ALL the fog off of each map, or race through? Were you teleporting around like Nightcrawler, or did you eschew the use of consumables entirely?

death1

We’re constructing each obituary from your (semi-randomised) “top 3” accomplishments, but the 3 most “interesting” or unusual, not necessarily your most impressive.

We’re only in alpha and we already have over twenty possible accomplishments, which can be combined into over six thousand possible obituaries. We hope to have closer to a hundred when we launch.

Do you have a good descriptor you’d like to see in your obituary?

Design Log 01: Mystery Items

On your adventures, some items you find are of obvious use. Obviously juice boxes and fresh meat are delicious. Nom nom.

foods

But sometimes, you’ll come across bottles of alien fluids. As the typical packrat adventurer, you’ll be compelled to pick them up and store them in your backpack. That’s just what you do, right?

Well, when you find a Fluid, you can’t be sure what it will do. Some Fluids are best to drink – they heal you, or give you Strength. But some Fluids are better to throw like grenades – they are flammable, or cause radiation poisoning. The only way you’ll know is to drink it or throw it, and watch what happens.

Let’s say, for example, you throw your Red Fluid on an enemy. It splashes, breaks, and nothing seems to happen. Hmmm..

What, punk? Come at me.

What, punk? Come at me.

So let’s say you find a second Red Fluid. Since throwing it didn’t work last time, this time you drink it…. And become Sneaky! Enemies won’t notice you as easily. For the rest of this run, you now see that Red Fluid are actually a Sneaky Drink.

fluideffects

Through similar experimentation, you discover the Blue Fluid is radioactive toxic waste and the Green Fluid is healing. Well done, scientist!

But the next time you start exploring, the Fluids are re-randomised again. Blue could make you hallucinate. Red could increase your Wits.

fluideffects2

Similarly, alien artifacts can have a variety of effects based on their crystal’s power – beware healing your enemies during your experiments, or setting an ally on fire!

guns

Some might point out, correctly, that we’re inspired heavily by our love of Brogue!

Our hope is that this can encourage player superstitions, strategy comparisons, and by-the-seat-of-your-pants extreme decision-making. When there’s crabs everywhere, and you only have a few hitpoints left, you can either guzzle all of your fluids, or throw them and fire your guns wildly in the hopes it will distract them enough for you to make your escape. It’s a balance challenge, but ideally players can debate the optimal time and place to experiment.

We’ve brainstormed over 50 possible effects for Fluids and crystal guns, but there’s room for lots more.

Do you have any interesting ideas for interesting effects from drinking a mysterious alien fluid, or firing an alien artifact? Leave your idea in the comments!

Really Random vs. Seems Random

Officer Greg put together this explanation of how stratification can help your generator feel more random than random.

Humans tend to be poor estimators of randomness. […]

humans-random_thumb

This is a problem for procedural generation. If your map consists of the same tile used over and over again, players (and designers) are likely to think that the algorithm is bugged. In a different strain, a map that has all the interesting features in one corner not only looks bad, but also makes for a fairly uninteresting play space. Small sample sizes selected without replacement just don’t cut it for procedural generation (and large samples are often not feasible.)

A solution is stratification. Stratification involves dividing the sampled distribution into segments (i.e. strata) and sampling randomly from each one.


The full text:

Stratification: How to Make Something Seem More Random by Making it Less So